US November CPI +2.1% y/y vs +2.0% expected

US November CPI +2.1% y/y vs +2.0% expected

US consumer price index for November 2019:

  • Prior was 1.8% y/y
  • Ex food and energy 2.3% vs 2.3% expected
  • Prior ex food and energy 2.3%

Month-over-month data:

  • +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.4%
  • Ex food and energy +0.2% vs +0.2% expected

The next three months of data in this series are going to be hot because of a soft y/y comp from Nov-Jan a year ago. An inflation scare would dent the Fed’s credibility. The risk is that they shift back to a hawkish bias — something that would be a major blow to risk assets.


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