Retraced more than 50% of the 2019 trading range
The EURUSD peaked for 2019 in mid – January 2019 at 1.15696 and bottomed in early October at 1.08787. Since October on the daily chart, the price has been able to chop it’s way higher. In the process, the price has moved above and below its 100 hour MA (blue line). What is key, is that the last dip lower in December stalled right at the 100 day MA. That was a bullish play.
Last week, the price moved back above it’s 200 day MA at 1.11426. Earlier in the month, there were 3 days where the price moved above that moving average but could not close above. On my last week, the price was able to not only get above my close above the 200 day moving average for the 1st time since the end of June/July 1. That too is a bullish play.
Today, the EURUSD has extended to new highs and in the process is pushing above the 50% retracement of the 2019 trading range at 1.12241. The pair is also extending above a topside trend line that extends from the January 11, 2019 high (and the June 2019 high). That trend line break occurred at 1.12305.
The next target on the daily comes in at 1.12489. That is the high price from August. Above that, and the pair starts to look toward the Mid July high at 1.12853.
The 50% midpoint is another one of those key bias borderline levels (the 100 and 200 day moving averages are also key technical levels) that catches my interest. Whether on an intraday chart, an intermediate chart or a longer chart, it says to me that the dominant trend move, has eaten into more than 1/2 of the move. It also means that those traders that have been selling with the trend (the trend is down for 2019) have the fear of the bear/bull see-saw, moving the other way.
Looking at the daily chart, apart from 4 days in August, the price has been below the 50% level. Everyone who is short from August are now losing money. The tide is turning. More bullish.
Now, there is work to do, but as we end the year, the buyers are wresting more control from the sellers on the break. In the near term, if the price can stay above, those buyers remain in control, and the sellers? Well they feel a little more of a squeeze.